Not an obviÂous conÂcluÂsion, I’ll agree. HowÂevÂer, Chris AnderÂson, ediÂtor of Wired, presents the arguÂment like this: as all sorts of data accuÂmuÂlate into a vast ocean of petabytes, our abilÂiÂty to synÂtheÂsize it all into eleÂgant theÂoÂries and laws will disÂapÂpear. The stoÂry is the covÂer of this monÂth’s issue of Wired but I came across it in a newsletÂter from The Edge, a group of thinkers tryÂing to proÂmote a “third culÂture” of online intelÂlecÂtuÂal thought.
AnderÂsonÂ’s arguÂment isn’t realÂly that the sciÂenÂtifÂic method will disÂapÂpear, but rather that corÂreÂlaÂtion will become as good as it gets in terms of anaÂlyzÂing real-world data. EveryÂthing will be too messy, noisy and changÂing too quickÂly for propÂer hypotheÂses and theÂoÂrems. As AnderÂson puts it, it will be “the end of theÂoÂry.”
The nice thing about readÂing this on Edge is that the newsletÂter comes with sevÂerÂal critÂiÂcal responsÂes includÂed from “The RealÂiÂty Club,” which includes thinkers like George Dyson, Kevin KelÂly and StuÂart Brand. But I say that as the conÂsumers and proÂducÂers of most of these massÂes of data, the vote should lie with you, readÂer: does Google’s brute force approach to data hordÂing spell the end sciÂenÂtifÂic eleÂgance?
Chris AnderÂson is wrong about the end of modÂels. ModÂels preÂdict and extend. Even givÂen comÂplete hisÂtorÂiÂcal and curÂrent data, there is nothÂing preÂdicÂtive about it. In sciÂence as in finance, past perÂforÂmance is no guarÂanÂtee of future results, and just as a crowd behaves difÂferÂentÂly from a group of indiÂvidÂuÂals, two sub-critÂiÂcal lumps of uraÂniÂum behave difÂferÂentÂly sepÂaÂrateÂly than they do joined togethÂer. Even if you take comÂplete inforÂmaÂtion about what hapÂpened yesÂterÂday and today and try to extrapÂoÂlate tomorÂrow, you are using a modÂel: you are assumÂing that tomorÂrow will look someÂthing like yesÂterÂday and today.
Just as a recent HarÂvard study showed Chris AnderÂson was wrong about the long tail, he is wrong about corÂreÂlaÂtion and modÂels. HowÂevÂer, popÂuÂlar culÂture will increasÂingÂly democÂraÂtize knowlÂedge — the more peoÂple believe someÂthing, the more relÂeÂvant that belief will be. Even if it is wrong. This is why Barack ObaÂma is a crypÂto-MusÂlim radÂiÂcal Black ChrisÂtÂian.
Pete,
I agree with you that AnderÂson is wrong and the era of modÂels is cerÂtainÂly not over (just beginÂning, actuÂalÂly). The point you make about ObaÂma is realÂly in AnderÂsonÂ’s favor: with so much inforÂmaÂtion out there, many peoÂple have givÂen up hope of reliÂable, objecÂtive truths and just put faith in facts the Google way–based on the numÂber of times peoÂple repeat them. Maybe that’s always how we did it, and there are just more voicÂes out there now.
ActuÂalÂly, I think your comÂment touchÂes on a sepÂaÂrate probÂlem. SciÂence will do fine, and the massÂes of data will be anaÂlyzed and underÂstood by an ever-more sophisÂtiÂcatÂed appaÂraÂtus of staÂtisÂtiÂcal tools and algoÂrithms. The trouÂble is, the math necÂesÂsary to cope with this brave new world is not being taught to enough of the peoÂple who need to underÂstand it. I can’t tell you how many times as a jourÂnalÂist I saw blaÂtant misÂrepÂreÂsenÂtaÂtions or misÂunÂderÂstandÂings of corÂreÂlaÂtion and causalÂiÂty. As the data and the sciÂence get more comÂpliÂcatÂed, the AverÂage Joe and even the AverÂage Joe JourÂnalÂist is falling behind.
Thanks for your input!
Ed