Don’t blame the lamestream media for this one. When it comes to our proÂtractÂed ecoÂnomÂic stagÂnaÂtion, there is ultiÂmateÂly one place to point the finÂger: It’s those pesky mainÂstream econÂoÂmists.
That’s the conÂcluÂsion of Niall FerÂguÂson, hisÂtoÂry proÂfesÂsor at HarÂvard and author of The Ascent of MonÂey: A FinanÂcial HisÂtoÂry of the World. FerÂguÂson makes his point in the first installÂment of a new aniÂmatÂed series of “Op-Vids” from The DaiÂly Beast. “What is an Op-Vid,” writes The DaiÂly Beast on Vimeo? “OpinÂion, withÂout the punÂdits yelling. HandÂmade aniÂmaÂtion, withÂout the carÂiÂcaÂtures. Essays withÂout the text. ComÂplex topÂics, withÂout the borÂing.” WithÂout the borÂing what? ComÂplexÂiÂty?
FerÂguÂson makes some curiÂous claims. He admits that stimÂuÂlus spendÂing has worked up to a point: It helped avoid anothÂer Great DepresÂsion. But it didn’t creÂate a susÂtained recovÂery. Why? Because there wasn’t enough of it? No. Because it leaks. In a globÂal econÂoÂmy, FerÂguÂson argues, you would need chaos theÂoÂry to underÂstand where the stimÂuÂlus actuÂalÂly ends up. Even more curiÂousÂly, FerÂguÂson argues that risÂing income inequalÂiÂty in AmerÂiÂca “limÂits the effecÂtiveÂness of KeyÂneÂsian poliÂcies, because they need averÂage houseÂholds to boost their spendÂing.” (So you can forÂget about hirÂing teachÂers, fireÂfightÂers or conÂstrucÂtion workÂers; that wouldn’t help “averÂage” houseÂholds spend more.)
HavÂing thus defeatÂed KeyÂneÂsianÂism, FerÂguÂson moves on to offer a soluÂtion: SimÂpliÂfy the tax code. NevÂer mind the shortÂfall in aggreÂgate demand for goods and serÂvices. NevÂer mind that corporations–sitting on $2 trilÂlion in uninÂvestÂed cash reserves–have mainÂtained near-record profÂits despite the shortÂfall by cutÂting proÂducÂtion and layÂing off workÂers. SimÂpliÂfy the tax code, says FerÂguÂson, and AmerÂiÂcan comÂpaÂnies will hire more AmerÂiÂcan workÂers. ProbÂlem solved.
As a footÂnote, it’s worth pointÂing out that in earÂly 2009 FerÂguÂson was involved in a very pubÂlic debate with PrinceÂton econÂoÂmist Paul KrugÂman over the effecÂtiveÂness of fisÂcal expanÂsion. FerÂguÂson argued that govÂernÂment borÂrowÂing would damÂage the econÂoÂmy by driÂving up interÂest rates. NearÂly three years latÂer, interÂest rates have remained very low. LookÂing back on the debate, KrugÂman said of FerÂguÂson, “He doesÂn’t underÂstand MacroÂecoÂnomÂics 101.”