It’s the Tax Code, Stupid: Niall Ferguson Solves Our Economic Mess

Don’t blame the lamestream media for this one. When it comes to our pro­tract­ed eco­nom­ic stag­na­tion, there is ulti­mate­ly one place to point the fin­ger: It’s those pesky main­stream econ­o­mists.

That’s the con­clu­sion of Niall Fer­gu­son, his­to­ry pro­fes­sor at Har­vard and author of The Ascent of Mon­ey: A Finan­cial His­to­ry of the World. Fer­gu­son makes his point in the first install­ment of a new ani­mat­ed series of “Op-Vids” from The Dai­ly Beast. “What is an Op-Vid,” writes The Dai­ly Beast on Vimeo? “Opin­ion, with­out the pun­dits yelling. Hand­made ani­ma­tion, with­out the car­i­ca­tures. Essays with­out the text. Com­plex top­ics, with­out the bor­ing.” With­out the bor­ing what? Com­plex­i­ty?

Fer­gu­son makes some curi­ous claims. He admits that stim­u­lus spend­ing has worked up to a point: It helped avoid anoth­er Great Depres­sion. But it didn’t cre­ate a sus­tained recov­ery. Why? Because there wasn’t enough of it? No. Because it leaks. In a glob­al econ­o­my, Fer­gu­son argues, you would need chaos the­o­ry to under­stand where the stim­u­lus actu­al­ly ends up. Even more curi­ous­ly, Fer­gu­son argues that ris­ing income inequal­i­ty in Amer­i­ca “lim­its the effec­tive­ness of Key­ne­sian poli­cies, because they need aver­age house­holds to boost their spend­ing.” (So you can for­get about hir­ing teach­ers, fire­fight­ers or con­struc­tion work­ers; that wouldn’t help “aver­age” house­holds spend more.)

Hav­ing thus defeat­ed Key­ne­sian­ism, Fer­gu­son moves on to offer a solu­tion: Sim­pli­fy the tax code. Nev­er mind the short­fall in aggre­gate demand for goods and ser­vices. Nev­er mind that corporations–sitting on $2 tril­lion in unin­vest­ed cash reserves–have main­tained near-record prof­its despite the short­fall by cut­ting pro­duc­tion and lay­ing off work­ers. Sim­pli­fy the tax code, says Fer­gu­son, and Amer­i­can com­pa­nies will hire more Amer­i­can work­ers. Prob­lem solved.

As a foot­note, it’s worth point­ing out that in ear­ly 2009 Fer­gu­son was involved in a very pub­lic debate with Prince­ton econ­o­mist Paul Krug­man over the effec­tive­ness of fis­cal expan­sion. Fer­gu­son argued that gov­ern­ment bor­row­ing would dam­age the econ­o­my by dri­ving up inter­est rates. Near­ly three years lat­er, inter­est rates have remained very low. Look­ing back on the debate, Krug­man said of Fer­gu­son, “He does­n’t under­stand Macro­eco­nom­ics 101.”

Joseph Stiglitz and Lawrence Lessig at Occupy Wall Street

Joseph Stiglitz teach­es at the Colum­bia Busi­ness School and Columbi­a’s Depart­ment of Eco­nom­ics and, of course, won the Nobel Prize in Eco­nom­ics in 2001.

The mon­ey quote from his appear­ance had less to do with eco­nom­ics per se and more with democ­ra­cy: “We have too many reg­u­la­tions stop­ping democ­ra­cy, and not enough reg­u­la­tions stop­ping Wall Street from mis­be­hav­ing.” No bull­horns, are you seri­ous?

You prob­a­bly know Lawrence Lessig because of his work found­ing Cre­ative Com­mons and pro­mot­ing “Free Cul­ture.” (Watch his final speech on Free Cul­ture here.) Sev­er­al years ago, Lessig moved from Stan­ford to Har­vard, where he took up a new focus — gov­ern­ment cor­rup­tion. That’s what he grap­ples with in his new book, Repub­lic, Lost and this relat­ed video. Giv­en Lessig’s focus on how cor­po­rate mon­ey cor­rupts our polit­i­cal sys­tem, it’s not sur­pris­ing that he would have some­thing to say about the poten­tial of the Wall Street protests.

Relat­ed Con­tent:

Slavoj Zizek Takes the Stage at Occu­py Wall Street

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Six Ideas That Set the West Apart from the Rest (And Why It’s All Over Now Baby Blue)

We’re tack­ling anoth­er big ques­tion today with the help of Har­vard eco­nom­ic his­to­ri­an Niall Fer­gu­son. And the ques­tion goes like this: Why has the West cre­at­ed so much pros­per­i­ty and sta­bil­i­ty over the past sev­er­al cen­turies, when the rest of the world did not? For Fer­gu­son, the “great diver­gence” can be explained by six big ideas, or what he calls killer apps for the ben­e­fit of his technophile TED audi­ence:

1. Com­pe­ti­tion
2. The Sci­en­tif­ic Rev­o­lu­tion
3. Prop­er­ty Rights
4. Mod­ern Med­i­cine
5. The Con­sumer Soci­ety
6. Work Eth­ic

These apps, it turns out, are open source. Any­one can down­load and use them. And that’s pre­cise­ly what Asia has done. The great diver­gence is over (baby blue)…

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Financial Markets Course with Yale Sage Robert Shiller

In March 2000, Yale econ­o­mist Robert Shiller pub­lished Irra­tional Exu­ber­ance, a book that warned that the long-run­ning bull mar­ket was a bub­ble. Weeks lat­er, the mar­ket cracked and Shiller was the new guru. Fast for­ward a few years, and Shiller released a sec­ond edi­tion of the same book, this time argu­ing that the hous­ing mar­ket was the lat­est and great­est bub­ble. We all know how that pre­dic­tion played out.

Unlike most of the finan­cial indus­try, Shiller isn’t locked into a peren­ni­al­ly bull­ish view, bent on pump­ing the mar­ket despite what the real num­bers sug­gest. And that should give stu­dents, whether young or old, some con­fi­dence in his free course sim­ply called “Finan­cial Mar­kets.” Avail­able on the web in mul­ti­ple for­mats (YouTube – iTunes Audio – iTunes Video — Yale Web Site), the 26 lec­ture-course cov­ers the inner-work­ings of finan­cial insti­tu­tions that ide­al­ly “sup­port peo­ple in their pro­duc­tive ven­tures” and help them man­age eco­nom­ic risks. You can start with Lec­ture 1 here. Above, we present his intro­duc­to­ry lec­ture on Stocks.

Final­ly (and sep­a­rate­ly) you can get Shiller’s thoughts on how to han­dle Amer­i­ca’s big debt mess here. It was record­ed in recent days.

Shiller’s course appears in the Eco­nom­ics sec­tion of our big col­lec­tion of Free Online Cours­es. 385 cours­es in total. Don’t miss them.

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Al Jazeera: The Top 1% in America

Al Jazeera forced many West­erns view­ers to take their report­ing seri­ous­ly dur­ing the Egypt­ian upris­ing this spring, and now the Qatar-based news net­work has released a time­ly reportage (Aug. 2) on the fault lines in Amer­i­ca — on the gap between rich and poor that only grew wider this week. Alex­is de Toc­queville they’re not. There’s no sub­tle soci­ol­o­gy here. But, at the same time, I sus­pect that this for­eign per­spec­tive on the U.S. won’t appear unfa­mil­iar to many Amer­i­cans. The pro­gram runs 24 min­utes, and oth­er shows in the Fault Lines series can be viewed on YouTube here. H/T @courosa

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Bubble Watch: Is China Next?


Last month, Chi­na hit anoth­er major mile­stone. It passed Japan and became the sec­ond largest econ­o­my in the world, leav­ing only the US in its way. Give Chi­na a decade, maybe a lit­tle more, and it will inevitably surge into the lead. That’s the accept­ed nar­ra­tive.

But then we come across this: the pos­si­bil­i­ty that a mount­ing real estate bub­ble might derail Chi­na’s plans. This report from Aus­tralian pub­lic tele­vi­sion gives you a dis­turb­ing look at how the Chi­nese gov­ern­ment has pumped vast amounts of cap­i­tal into fixed assets, like com­mer­cial and res­i­den­tial real estate, to keep the coun­try’s econ­o­my grow­ing. And what they’re left with is what James Chanos (a hedge fund man­ag­er) has famous­ly described as “Dubai times one thou­sand.” Right now, there are an esti­mat­ed 64 mil­lion emp­ty apart­ments in Chi­na, and approx­i­mate­ly 30 bil­lion square feet of com­mer­cial real estate under con­struc­tion — equiv­a­lent to a five-by-five foot office cubi­cle for every man, woman and child in Chi­na. It’s one thing to read these facts, anoth­er thing to see what it all looks like. And that’s the oppor­tu­ni­ty you get above.

For a more pre­cise roadmap of what a Chi­nese crash might look like, you should spend some time with this piece in Cana­di­an Busi­ness mag­a­zine.

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Inside Job, Oscar-Winning Documentary, Now Online (Free)

In late Feb­ru­ary, Charles Fer­gu­son’s film – Inside Job – won the Acad­e­my Award for Best Doc­u­men­tary. And now the film doc­u­ment­ing the caus­es of the 2008 glob­al finan­cial melt­down has made its way online. A cor­rupt finan­cial indus­try, its cor­ro­sive rela­tion­ship with politi­cians, aca­d­e­mics and reg­u­la­tors, and the tril­lions of dam­age done, it all gets doc­u­ment­ed in this film that runs a lit­tle shy of 2 hours.

Inside Job can be pur­chased on DVD at Ama­zon. We all love free, but let’s remem­ber that good projects cost real mon­ey to devel­op, and they could use real finan­cial sup­port. So please con­sid­er buy­ing a copy.

Hope­ful­ly watch­ing or buy­ing this film won’t be a point­less act, even though it can right­ly feel that way. As Charles Fer­gu­son remind­ed us dur­ing his Oscar accep­tance speech, we are three years beyond the Wall Street cri­sis and tax­pay­ers (you) got fleeced for bil­lions. But still not one Wall Street exec is fac­ing crim­i­nal charges. Wel­come to your plu­toc­ra­cy…

Jon Stewart: Teachers Have it Too Good (Wink)

Jon Stew­art had to do it. He had to con­nect the dots. We’re going after the pub­lic ser­vants try­ing to do some good. But how about the non-con­tribut­ing bankers who kept their per­son­al gravy train rolling at tax­pay­er expense? Or the hedge fund man­agers who pay dra­mat­i­cal­ly low­er tax­es than almost any­one read­ing this site? 15%?? And let’s not for­get that some of our our largest cor­po­ra­tions – includ­ing GE and Exxon — have recent­ly paid no US income tax? Ulti­mate­ly, this all gets down to who funds your next elec­tion. Banks and cor­po­ra­tions do. Kids and pub­lic ser­vants don’t. David Brooks makes that point rather well. I’m all for sac­ri­fice, but let’s make it fair and shared. Or is that idea too “social­ist” (or what we quaint­ly used to call “demo­c­ra­t­ic”)?

Relat­ed Note:

Michael Moore Tells Wis­con­sin Teach­ers “Amer­i­ca is NOT Broke”

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