Pandemic Literature: A Meta-List of the Books You Should Read in Coronavirus Quarantine

Describ­ing con­di­tions char­ac­ter­is­tic of life in the ear­ly 21st cen­tu­ry, future his­to­ri­ans may well point to such epi­dem­ic viral ill­ness­es as SARS, MERS, and the now-ram­pag­ing COVID-19. But those focused on cul­ture will also have their pick of much more benign recur­ring phe­nom­e­na to explain: top­i­cal book lists, for instance, which crop up in the 21st-cen­tu­ry press at the faintest prompt­ing by cur­rent events. As the coro­n­avirus has spread through the Eng­lish-speak­ing world over the past month, pan­dem­ic-themed read­ing lists have appeared in all man­ner of out­lets: TimePBS, the Hol­ly­wood Reporter, the Guardian, the Globe and MailHaaretzVul­tureElec­tric Lit­er­a­ture, and oth­ers besides.

As mankind’s old­est dead­ly foe, dis­ease has pro­vid­ed themes to lit­er­a­ture since lit­er­a­ture’s very inven­tion. In the Euro­pean canon, no such work is more ven­er­a­ble than The Decameron, writ­ten by Renais­sance human­ist Gio­van­ni Boc­cac­cio in the late 1340s and ear­ly 1350s. “His pro­tag­o­nists, sev­en women and three men, retreat to a vil­la out­side Flo­rence to avoid the pan­dem­ic,” writes The Guardian’s Lois Beck­ett, refer­ring to the bubon­ic plague, or “Black Death,” that rav­aged Europe in the mid-14th cen­tu­ry. “There, iso­lat­ed for two weeks, they pass the time by telling each oth­er sto­ries” — and “live­ly, bizarre, and often very filthy sto­ries” at that — “with a dif­fer­ent theme for each day.”

A lat­er out­break of the bubon­ic plague in Lon­don inspired Robin­son Cru­soe author Daniel Defoe to write the A Jour­nal of the Plague Year. “Set in 1655 and pub­lished in 1722, the nov­el was like­ly based, in part, on the jour­nals of the author’s uncle,” writes the Globe and Mail’s Alec Scott. Defoe’s diarist “speaks of bod­ies pil­ing up in mass graves, of sud­den deaths and unlike­ly recov­er­ies from the brink, and also blames those from else­where for the out­break.” A Jour­nal of the Plague Year appears on these read­ing lists as often as Albert Camus’ The Plaguepre­vi­ous­ly fea­tured here on Open Cul­ture. “Camus’ famous work about the inhab­i­tants of an Alger­ian town who are strick­en by the bubon­ic plague was pub­lished back in 1947,” writes PBS’ Court­ney Vinopal, “but it has struck a chord with read­ers today liv­ing through the coro­n­avirus.”

Of nov­els pub­lished in the past decade, none has been select­ed as a must-read in coro­n­avirus quar­an­tine as often as Emi­ly St. John Man­del’s Sta­tion Eleven. “After a swine flu pan­dem­ic wipes out most of the world’s pop­u­la­tion, a group of musi­cians and actors trav­el around new­ly formed set­tle­ments to keep their art alive,” says Time. “Man­del show­cas­es the impact of the pan­dem­ic on all of their lives,” weav­ing togeth­er “char­ac­ters’ per­spec­tives from across the plan­et and over sev­er­al decades to explore how human­i­ty can fall apart and then, some­how, come back togeth­er.” Ling Ma’s dark­ly satir­i­cal Sev­er­ance also makes a strong show­ing: Elec­tric Lit­er­a­ture describes it as “a pan­dem­ic-zom­bie-dystopi­an-nov­el, but it’s also a relat­able mil­len­ni­al com­ing-of-age sto­ry and an intel­li­gent cri­tique of exploita­tive cap­i­tal­ism, mind­less con­sumerism, and the drudgery of bull­shit jobs.”

Since a well-bal­anced read­ing diet (and those of us stuck at home for weeks on end have giv­en much thought to bal­anced diets) requires both fic­tion and non­fic­tion, sev­er­al of these lists also include works of schol­ar­ship, his­to­ry, and jour­nal­ism on the real epi­demics that have inspired all this lit­er­a­ture. Take Richard Pre­ston’s best­seller The Hot Zone: The Ter­ri­fy­ing True Sto­ry of the Ori­gins of the Ebo­la Virus, which Gre­go­ry Eaves at Medi­um calls “a hair-rais­ing account of the appear­ance of rare and lethal virus­es and their ‘crash­es’ into the human race.” For an episode of his­to­ry more com­pa­ra­ble to the coro­n­avirus, there’s John M. Bar­ry’s The Great Influen­za: The Sto­ry of the Dead­liest Pan­dem­ic in His­to­ry, “a tale of tri­umph amid tragedy, which pro­vides us with a pre­cise and sober­ing mod­el as we con­front the epi­demics loom­ing on our own hori­zon.”

Below you’ll find a meta-list of all the nov­els and non­fic­tion books includ­ed on the read­ing lists linked above. As for the books them­selves — libraries and book­stores being a bit dif­fi­cult to access in many parts of the world at the moment — you might check for them in our col­lec­tion of books free online, the tem­porar­i­ly opened Nation­al Emer­gency Library at the Inter­net Archive, and our recent post on clas­sic works of plague lit­er­a­ture avail­able to down­load. How­ev­er you find these books, hap­py read­ing — or, more to the point, healthy read­ing.

Fic­tion

  • Ammonite by Nico­la Grif­fith
  • The Androm­e­da Strain by Michael Crich­ton
  • Beau­ty Salon by Mario Bel­latin
  • Bird Box by Josh Maler­man
  • Blind­ness by José Sara­m­a­go
  • The Book of M by Peng Shep­herd
  • The Bro­ken Earth tril­o­gy by N.K. Jemisin
  • Bring Out Your Dead by J.M. Pow­ell
  • The Child Gar­den by Geoff Ryman
  • The Children’s Hos­pi­tal by Chris Adri­an
  • The Com­pan­ion by Katie M. Fly­nn
  • The Decameron by Gio­van­ni Boc­cac­cio
  • The Dog Stars by Peter Heller
  • The Dooms­day Book by Con­nie Willis
  • The Dream­ers by Karen Thomp­son Walk­er
  • Earth Abides by George R. Stew­art
  • The Eyes of Dark­ness by Dean Koontz
  • Find Me by Lau­ra van den Berg
  • The Great Believ­ers by Rebec­ca Makkai
  • Jane Eyre by Char­lotte Bron­të
  • Jour­nal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe
  • Jour­nal of the Plague Years by Nor­man Spin­rad
  • The Last Man by Mary Shel­ley
  • The Last Town on Earth by Thomas Mullen
  • Love in the Time of Cholera by Gabriel Gar­cía Márquez
  • My Side of the Moun­tain by Jean Craig­head George
  • My Year of Rest and Relax­ation by Ottes­sa Mosh­fegh
  • The Old Drift by Namwali Ser­pell
  • Oryx and Crake by Mar­garet Atwood
  • Pale Horse, Pale Rid­er by Kather­ine Anne Porter
  • The Pas­sage tril­o­gy by Justin Cronin
  • The Plague by Albert Camus
  • The Pow­er by Nao­mi Alder­man
  • Real Life by Bran­don Tay­lor
  • The Road by Cor­mac McCarthy
  • Room by Emma Donoghue
  • Sev­er­ance by Ling Ma
  • Sta­tion Eleven by Emi­ly St. John Man­del
  • The Stand by Stephen King
  • They Came Like Swal­lows by William Maxwell
  • The Train­ing Com­mis­sion by Ingrid Bur­ring­ton and Bren­dan Byrne
  • The Trans­mi­gra­tion of Bod­ies by Yuri Her­rera
  • The White Plague by Frank Her­bert
  • Wilder Girls by Rory Pow­er
  • World War Z by Max Brooks
  • The Year of the Flood by Mar­garet Atwood
  • Year of Won­ders by Geral­dine Brooks
  • The Years of Rice and Salt by Kim Stan­ley Robin­son
  • Zone One by Col­son White­head

 

Non­fic­tion

  • The Amer­i­can Plague: The Untold Sto­ry of Yel­low Fever, The Epi­dem­ic That Shaped Our His­to­ry by Mol­ly Cald­well Cros­by
  • And the Band Played On by Randy Shilts
  • The Com­ing Plague: New­ly Emerg­ing Dis­eases in a World Out of Bal­ance by Lau­rie Gar­rett
  • A Dis­tant Mir­ror: The Calami­tous 14th Cen­tu­ry by Bar­bara W. Tuch­man
  • Flu: The Sto­ry Of the Great Influen­za Pan­dem­ic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It by Gina Kola­ta
  • The Ghost Map: The Sto­ry of London’s Most Ter­ri­fy­ing Epidemic–and How It Changed Sci­ence, Cities, and the Mod­ern World by Steven John­son
  • The Great Influen­za: The Sto­ry of the Dead­liest Pan­dem­ic in His­to­ry by John Bar­ry
  • The Great Mor­tal­i­ty: An Inti­mate His­to­ry of the Black Death, the Most Dev­as­tat­ing Plague of All Time by John Kel­ly
  • His­to­ry of the Pelo­pon­nesian War by Thucy­dides
  • The Hot Zone The Ter­ri­fy­ing True Sto­ry of the Ori­gins of the Ebo­la Virus by Richard Pre­ston
  • Net­worked Dis­ease: Emerg­ing Infec­tions in the Glob­al City by A. Har­ris Ali and Roger Keil
  • Pale Rid­er: The Span­ish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World by Lau­ra Spin­ney
  • Pox: An Amer­i­can His­to­ry by Michael Will­rich

Relat­ed Con­tent:

Down­load Clas­sic Works of Plague Fic­tion: From Daniel Defoe & Mary Shel­ley, to Edgar Allan Poe

Why You Should Read The Plague, the Albert Camus Nov­el the Coro­n­avirus Has Made a Best­seller Again

The His­to­ry of the Plague: Every Major Epi­dem­ic in an Ani­mat­ed Map

Free Cours­es on the Coro­n­avirus: What You Need to Know About the Emerg­ing Pan­dem­ic

The Nation­al Emer­gency Library Makes 1.5 Mil­lion Books Free to Read Right Now

800 Free eBooks for iPad, Kin­dle & Oth­er Devices

Based in Seoul, Col­in Mar­shall writes and broad­casts on cities, lan­guage, and cul­ture. His projects include the book The State­less City: a Walk through 21st-Cen­tu­ry Los Ange­les and the video series The City in Cin­e­ma. Fol­low him on Twit­ter at @colinmarshall, on Face­book, or on Insta­gram.

Dolly Parton Will Read Bedtime Stories to You Every Week

Used to be that Dol­ly Par­ton was rel­e­gat­ed to the coun­try music community–well loved, adored, but hemmed in by her genre. Cer­tain­ly Gen X’ers like myself didn’t take her too seri­ous­ly, and hav­ing a theme park named after you in Ten­nessee? Not too cool.

Yet, as we have wan­dered back into the wretched, burn­ing plains of mod­ern life and found that, yes, Mis­ter Rogers was a good per­son all along, we have also made space for Dol­ly Par­ton. She is a good per­son, and she is also there­fore a Good Per­son.

Start­ing today, April 2, 2020, Dol­ly Par­ton will join us all in quar­an­tine by way of the Inter­net to read us bed­time sto­ries. She will be start­ing with The Lit­tle Engine That Could (see below), the clas­sic tale of deter­mi­na­tion by Wat­ty Piper. And lis­ten, Gen X’ers, this isn’t for you! This is for your kids! (But okay yes, it’s also for you. It’s for all of you who have tak­en on the role of par­ent, teacher, enter­tain­er, psy­chol­o­gist, and social work­er with­out any increase in pay dur­ing these hard times. You just might be asleep before your kids once Dol­ly starts read­ing. I might just join you if I can find a spare blankie.

Dol­ly Parton’s Imag­i­na­tion Library has been the force behind all this, a non-prof­it that pro­motes lit­er­a­cy and par­ent-child read­ing by send­ing a book every month to a child, from their birth till age five. It start­ed in Parton’s home coun­ty in the mid-‘80s but now reach­es 1,546,000+ chil­dren not just in the Unit­ed States, but in Cana­da, Aus­tralia, the UK and the Repub­lic of Ire­land, accord­ing to her web­site.

The Lit­tle Engine That Could is a great kick off to a series of week­ly bed­time sto­ries. Do you think you can get through this? Just repeat to your­self: I think I can, I think I can, I think I can, I think I can…

Relat­ed Con­tent:

Dol­ly Parton’s “Jolene” Slowed Down to 33RPM Sounds Great and Takes on New, Unex­pect­ed Mean­ings

Feel Strange­ly Nos­tal­gic as You Hear Clas­sic Songs Reworked to Sound as If They’re Play­ing in an Emp­ty Shop­ping Mall: David Bowie, Toto, Ah-ha & More

Enter an Archive of 6,000 His­tor­i­cal Children’s Books, All Dig­i­tized and Free to Read Online

Ted Mills is a free­lance writer on the arts who cur­rent­ly hosts the Notes from the Shed pod­cast and is the pro­duc­er of KCR­W’s Curi­ous Coast. You can also fol­low him on Twit­ter at @tedmills, and/or watch his films here.

This is What Richard Feynman’s PhD Thesis Looks Like: A Video Introduction

Richard Feyn­man wasn’t just an “ordi­nary genius.” He was, accord­ing to math­e­mati­cian Mark Kac “in his tax­on­o­my of the two types of genius­es,” a “magi­cian” and “a cham­pi­on of sci­en­tif­ic knowl­edge so effec­tive and so beloved that he has gen­er­at­ed an entire canon of per­son­al mythol­o­gy,” writes Maria Popo­va at Brain Pick­ings. Many a Feyn­man anec­dote comes from Feyn­man him­self, who bur­nished his pop­u­lar image with two best­selling auto­bi­ogra­phies. His sto­ries about his life in sci­ence are extra­or­di­nary, and true, includ­ing one he tells the first sem­i­nar he gave at Prince­ton in 1939, attend­ed by Wolf­gang Pauli, John von Neu­mann, and Albert Ein­stein.

“Ein­stein,” Feyn­man writes in Sure­ly You’re Jok­ing, Mr. Feyn­man!, “appre­ci­at­ed that things might be dif­fer­ent from what his the­o­ry stat­ed; he was very tol­er­ant of oth­er ideas.” The young upstart had many oth­er ideas. As biog­ra­ph­er James Gle­ick writes, Feyn­man was “near­ing the crest of his pow­ers. At twen­ty three… there may now have been no physi­cist on earth who could match his exu­ber­ant com­mand over the native mate­ri­als of the­o­ret­i­cal sci­ence.” He had yet to com­plete his dis­ser­ta­tion and would take a break from his doc­tor­al stud­ies to work on the Man­hat­tan Project in 1941.

Then, in 1942, Feyn­man sub­mit­ted his the­sis, Prin­ci­ples of least action in quan­tum mechan­ics, super­vised John Archibald Wheel­er, with whom Feyn­man shares the name of an elec­tro­dy­nam­ic the­o­rem. Pub­lished for the first time in 2005 by World Sci­en­tif­ic, “its orig­i­nal motive,” notes the pub­lish­er, “was to quan­tize the clas­si­cal action-at-a-dis­tance electrodynamics”—partly in response to the chal­lenges posed to his ear­ly lec­tures. In order to do this, says Toby, host of the video above, “he’ll need to come up with his own for­mu­la­tion of quan­tum mechan­ics, and he does this by first com­ing up with a new for­mu­la­tion in clas­si­cal mechan­ics,” which he must apply to quan­tum mechan­ics. “This turns out to be a bit of a chal­lenge.”

Feyn­man him­self found it insur­mount­able. “I nev­er solved it,” he writes in Sure­ly You’re Jok­ing, “a quan­tum the­o­ry of half-advanced, half-retard­ed potentials—and I worked on it for years.” But his “field-less elec­tro­dy­nam­ics” pos­sessed a “stu­pen­dous effi­cien­cy,” argues physi­cist Olivi­er Dar­rigol, that “appeared like mag­ic to most of his com­peti­tors.” The val­ue of this ear­ly work, says Toby, lies not in its abil­i­ty to solve the prob­lems it rais­es, but to come up with “a new way to approach things”—a method of con­tin­u­al search­ing that served him his entire career. He may have dis­card­ed many of the ideas in the the­sis, but his “mag­i­cal” think­ing would nonethe­less lead to lat­er mas­sive break­throughs like Feyn­man dia­grams.

Those who fol­low the math can do so in the fif­teen-minute video walk­through of the Feynman’s thesis—and read the the­sis in pdf form here. Toby lists sev­er­al sources on key con­cepts on the video’s YouTube page to get you up to speed. If the high-lev­el physics flies right over your head, learn more about how Feynman’s incred­i­ble abil­i­ty to learn and teach almost any sub­ject made him such a flex­i­ble and cre­ative thinker in Gleick’s book, Genius: The Life and Sci­ence of Richard Feyn­man.

Relat­ed Con­tent:

The Feyn­man Lec­tures on Physics, The Most Pop­u­lar Physics Book Ever Writ­ten, Is Now Com­plete­ly Online

Richard Feynman’s Tech­nique for Learn­ing Some­thing New: An Ani­mat­ed Intro­duc­tion

Richard Feynman’s “Lost Lec­ture:” An Ani­mat­ed Retelling

Josh Jones is a writer and musi­cian based in Durham, NC. Fol­low him at @jdmagness

Why Did LEGO Become a Media Empire? Pretty Much Pop: A Culture Podcast #37

Why has a chil­dren’s toy become a brand attached to vir­tu­al­ly every media type, part­ner­ing with the most ubiq­ui­tous fran­chis­es, and serv­ing as a pas­time for many adult hob­by­ists who will gut you if you call LEGO a “chil­dren’s toy.”

Bri­an Hirt (our res­i­dent AFOL, i.e. adult fan of LEGO) talks with co-hosts Eri­ca Spyres and Mark Lin­sen­may­er about cre­ative play vs. fol­low­ing the print­ed direc­tions, build­ing purists vs. anthro­po­mor­phiz­ers, LEGO qua cor­po­rate over­lord, the LEGO films and com­pet­i­tive build­ing TV show, and more.

Bri­an’s LEGO designs that we react to are the Man­del­brot frac­tal, baby Yoda, drei­del, and swim­ming pool. “AFOL” is but the first of many LEGO-spe­cif­ic ini­tialisms; see the glos­sary.

Here are some arti­cles we drummed up to pre­pare:

Learn more at prettymuchpop.com. This episode includes bonus dis­cus­sion that you can only hear by sup­port­ing the pod­cast at patreon.com/prettymuchpop. This pod­cast is part of the Par­tial­ly Exam­ined Life pod­cast net­work.

Pret­ty Much Pop: A Cul­ture Pod­cast is the first pod­cast curat­ed by Open Cul­ture. Browse all Pret­ty Much Pop posts or start with the first episode.

Samuel L. Jackson Reads “Stay the F**k at Home”

The 2020 sequel to Go the F–k to Sleep Nar­rat­ed by Samuel L. Jack­son. The read­ing starts at the 6:10 mark…

 

Watch Online 75 Short Films from 2020’s South by Southwest Festival

South by South­west, one of Amer­i­ca’s biggest cul­tur­al events, won’t hap­pen this year. The cause, of course, is the coro­n­avirus pan­dem­ic, its own sta­tus as an event unprece­dent­ed in our age evi­denced by the fact that South by South­west has nev­er in its 33-year his­to­ry been can­celed before. When SXSW, as it’s now known, launched in Austin, Texas back in 1987, it did so pure­ly as a music fes­ti­val; cin­e­ma came in 1994, when it became the “SXSW Film and Mul­ti­me­dia Con­fer­ence.” Since then quite a few movies have launched from Austin into inter­na­tion­al renown, includ­ing Jef­frey Blitz’s spelling-bee doc­u­men­tary Spell­bound, Kathryn Bigelow’s Iraq War thriller The Hurt Lock­er, and the entire genre of “mum­blecore.”

Spare a thought, then, for the film­mak­ers with work accept­ed into SXSW 2020 — or bet­ter yet, spare some time to watch their films online. While the fes­ti­val’s orga­niz­ers fig­ure out whether and how to resched­ule, e‑mail newslet­ter ser­vice Mailchimp and inde­pen­dent film com­pa­ny Oscil­lo­scope Lab­o­ra­to­ries “have cre­at­ed a dig­i­tal home for this incred­i­ble slate of short films, so you can watch them from wher­ev­er you are.”

That slate includes selec­tions from sub­cat­e­gories such as ani­ma­tion, doc­u­men­tary, the “pre­view of the next film­mak­ing gen­er­a­tion” offered by the work of Texas high-school film­mak­ers, and even the beloved “mid­nighters,” offi­cial­ly described as “bite-sized bits for all of your sex, gore, and hilar­i­ty crav­ings.”

One such mid­nighter, a piece of domes­tic hor­ror by Jan­i­na Gavankar and Rus­so Schelling called Stuc­co, appears at the top of the post. You’ll find it on this Youtube playlist of short offi­cial selec­tions from SXSW 2020, which also includes Zoe and Hanh, Kim Tran’s exam­i­na­tion of “girls, boys, and moth­ers,” a “tri­an­gle of ten­sion since… for­ev­er,” and Char­lie Tyrel­l’s Bro­ken Orches­tra, a doc­u­men­tary on a Philadel­phia com­mu­ni­ty’s effort to breathe life into a trou­bled pub­lic-school music pro­gram. There isn’t much over­lap between this playlist and the many shorts avail­able to watch free on Mailchim­p’s site, so if you want to dis­cov­er the film­mak­ers you would have at Austin this year — includ­ing the mak­ers of Grand Jury Prize win­ners No Cry­ing at the Din­ner Table, Regret, Just Hold On, and Wish Upon a Snow­man — head over there and have your own pri­vate SXSW Film Fes­ti­val.

via No Film School

Relat­ed Con­tent:

1,150 Free Movies Online: Great Clas­sics, Indies, Noir, West­erns, etc.

Watch Curat­ed Playlists of Exper­i­men­tal Videos & Films to Get You Through COVID-19: Miran­da July, Jan Švankma­jer, Guy Maddin & More

Stream Free Online 200 Films from Tribeca Film Fes­ti­vals

Live Per­form­ers Now Stream­ing Shows, from their Homes to Yours: Neil Young, Cold­play, Broad­way Stars, Met­ro­pol­i­tan Operas & More

Use Your Time in Iso­la­tion to Learn Every­thing You’ve Always Want­ed To: Free Online Cours­es, Audio Books, eBooks, Movies, Col­or­ing Books & More

Based in Seoul, Col­in Mar­shall writes and broad­casts on cities, lan­guage, and cul­ture. His projects include the book The State­less City: a Walk through 21st-Cen­tu­ry Los Ange­les and the video series The City in Cin­e­ma. Fol­low him on Twit­ter at @colinmarshall, on Face­book, or on Insta­gram.

Pachelbel’s Canon Played by Train Horns

Because we all need a men­tal health break these days. Cou­ple it with a ver­sion played on a rub­ber chick­en when you’re done

If you would like to sign up for Open Culture’s free email newslet­ter, please find it here. Or fol­low our posts on Threads, Face­book, BlueSky or Mastodon.

If you would like to sup­port the mis­sion of Open Cul­ture, con­sid­er mak­ing a dona­tion to our site. It’s hard to rely 100% on ads, and your con­tri­bu­tions will help us con­tin­ue pro­vid­ing the best free cul­tur­al and edu­ca­tion­al mate­ri­als to learn­ers every­where. You can con­tribute through Pay­Pal, Patre­on, and Ven­mo (@openculture). Thanks!

via Kot­tke

Relat­ed Con­tent:

New Order’s “Blue Mon­day” Played with Obso­lete 1930s Instru­ments

“Some­where Over the Rain­bow” Played on a 1929 Theremin

Watch Jimi Hendrix’s ‘Voodoo Chile’ Per­formed on a Gayageum, a Tra­di­tion­al Kore­an Instru­ment

Simulating an Epidemic: Using Data to Show How Diseases Like COVID-19 Spread

Dis­ease mod­el­ing as a sci­ence has come into its own late­ly, for heart­break­ing­ly obvi­ous rea­sons. What may not be so obvi­ous to those of us who aren’t sci­en­tists is just how crit­i­cal data can be in chang­ing the course of events in an out­break. Virus out­breaks may be “acts of God” or acts of unreg­u­lat­ed black mar­kets and agribusi­ness­es, but in either case, sta­tis­ti­cal mod­els can show, con­crete­ly, how col­lec­tive human activ­i­ty can save lives—and show what hap­pens when peo­ple don’t act togeth­er.

For exam­ple, epi­demi­ol­o­gists and bio­sta­tis­ti­cians have shown in detail how social dis­tanc­ing led to a “decline in the pro­por­tion of influen­za deaths,” one study con­cludes, dur­ing the 1918 flu pan­dem­ic. The same researchers also saw evi­dence in their mod­els that showed “pub­lic risk per­cep­tion could be low­ered” when these prac­tices worked effec­tive­ly, lead­ing peo­ple think they could resume busi­ness as usu­al. But “less social dis­tanc­ing could even­tu­al­ly induce anoth­er epi­dem­ic wave.”

To say that it’s a chal­lenge to stay inside and wait out COVID-19 indef­i­nite­ly may be a gross under­state­ment, but hun­ker­ing down may save our lives. No one can say what will hap­pen, but as for how and why it hap­pens, well, “that is math, not prophe­cy,” writes Har­ry Stevens at The Wash­ing­ton Post. “The virus can be slowed,” if peo­ple con­tin­ue “avoid­ing pub­lic spaces and gen­er­al­ly lim­it­ing their move­ment.” Let’s take a look at how with the mod­el above. We must note that the video above does not mod­el COVID-19 specif­i­cal­ly, but a offers a detailed look at how a hypo­thet­i­cal epi­dem­ic spreads.

Cre­at­ed by YouTu­ber 3Blue1Brown, the mod­el­ing in the top video draws from a vari­ety of sources, includ­ing Stevens’ inter­ac­tive mod­els of a hypo­thet­i­cal dis­ease he calls “simuli­tis.” Anoth­er sim­u­la­tor whose work con­tributed to the video, Kevin Sim­ler, has also explained the spread of dis­ease with inter­ac­tive mod­els that enable us to visu­al­ize dif­fi­cult-to-grasp epi­demi­o­log­i­cal con­cepts, since “expo­nen­tial growth is real­ly, real­ly hard for our human brains to under­stand” in the abstract, says YouTube physics explain­er Minute Physics in the short, ani­mat­ed video above.

Deaths mul­ti­ply faster than the media can report, and what­ev­er totals we come across are hope­less­ly out­dat­ed by the time we read them, an emo­tion­al and intel­lec­tu­al bar­rage. So how can we know if we’re “win­ning or los­ing” (to use the not-par­tic­u­lar­ly-help­ful war metaphor) the COVID-19 fight? Here too, the cur­rent data on its pre­vi­ous progress in oth­er coun­tries can help plot the course of the dis­ease in the U.S. and else­where, and allow sci­en­tists and pol­i­cy-mak­ers to make rea­son­able infer­ences about how to stop expo­nen­tial growth.

But none of these mod­els show the kind of gran­u­lar­i­ty that doc­tors, nurs­es, and pub­lic health pro­fes­sion­als must deal with in a real pan­dem­ic. “Simuli­tis is not covid-19, and these sim­u­la­tions vast­ly over­sim­pli­fy the com­plex­i­ty of real life,” Stevens admits. Super-com­pli­cat­ing risk fac­tors like age, race, dis­abil­i­ty, and access to insur­ance and resources aren’t rep­re­sent­ed here. And there may be no way to mod­el what­ev­er the gov­ern­ment is doing.

But the data mod­els show us what has worked and what has­n’t, both in the past and in the recent present, and they have become very acces­si­ble thanks to the inter­net (and open source jour­nals on plat­forms like PLOS). For a longer, in-depth expla­na­tion of the cur­rent pan­demic’s expo­nen­tial spread, see the lec­ture by epi­demi­ol­o­gist Nicholas Jew­ell above from the Math­e­mat­i­cal Sci­ences Research Insti­tute (MSRI).

It may not sway peo­ple who active­ly ignore math, but dis­ease mod­el­ing can guide the mere­ly unin­formed to a much bet­ter under­stand­ing of what’s hap­pen­ing, and bet­ter deci­sions about how to respond under the cir­cum­stances.

Relat­ed Con­tent:  

Spring Break vs. COVID-19: Map­ping the Real Impact of Ignor­ing Social Dis­tanc­ing

Watch “Coro­n­avirus Out­break: What You Need to Know,” and the 24-Lec­ture Course “An Intro­duc­tion to Infec­tious Dis­eases,” Both Free from The Great Cours­es

The His­to­ry of the Plague: Every Major Epi­dem­ic in an Ani­mat­ed Map

Josh Jones is a writer and musi­cian based in Durham, NC. Fol­low him at @jdmagness

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