Chances are you’ve looked at more graphs this past year than you did over the preÂviÂous decade — not just while workÂing at home, but while scrolling through casÂcades of often-trouÂbling quanÂtiÂtaÂtive inforÂmaÂtion durÂing your “off” hours as well. This pheÂnomÂeÂnon has hardÂly been limÂitÂed to the AmerÂiÂcans who obsessed over the preÂdicÂtions of and returns from their presÂiÂdenÂtial elecÂtion last month, an event turned pracÂtiÂcalÂly into a sideshow by the ongoÂing panÂdemÂic. Around the world, we’ve all wantÂed to know: Where did the coroÂnÂavirus come from? What is it? Where is it going?
ApoloÂgies to Paul GauÂguin, who didÂn’t even live to see the SpanÂish flu of 1918, a time when nobody could have imagÂined instanÂtaÂneousÂly and wideÂly sharÂing visuÂal renÂderÂings of data about that disÂease. The world of a cenÂtuÂry ago may not have had dynamÂic aniÂmatÂed maps and charts, updatÂed in real time, but it did have croÂchet. Whether or not it had then occurred to anyÂone as a viable mediÂum for visuÂalÂizÂing the spread of disÂease, it can be conÂvincÂing today. This is demonÂstratÂed by NorÂweÂgian bioÂstaÂtisÂtiÂcian Kathrine Frey FrøsÂlie, who in the video above shows us her croÂcheted repÂreÂsenÂtaÂtions of varÂiÂous “R numÂbers.”
This now much-heard term, FrøsÂlie’s explains, “denotes reproÂducÂtion. If the R numÂber is one, this means that each infectÂed perÂson will on averÂage infect one new perÂson durÂing the course of the disÂease. If R equals two, each infectÂed perÂson will infect two perÂsons,” and so on. Her croÂcheted verÂsion of R=1, with a popÂuÂlaÂtion of ten, is small and narÂrow — it looks, in othÂer words, entireÂly manÂageÂable. Such a disÂease “will always be always present, but the numÂber of infectÂed perÂsons will be conÂstant.” Her R=0.9, which steadiÂly narÂrows in a way that resemÂbles an unfinÂished ChristÂmas stockÂing, looks even less threatÂenÂing.
Alas, “for the coroÂnÂavirus, the R is mostÂly largÂer than one.” In croÂcheted form, even R=1.1 is pretÂty forÂmiÂdaÂble; when she brings out her R=1.5, “it is eviÂdent that we have a probÂlem. Even the croÂchet patch kind of crumÂbles.” Then out comes R=2, which must have been quite a project: its ten origÂiÂnal infecÂtions bloom into 2,560 new casÂes, all repÂreÂsentÂed in almost organÂiÂcalÂly dense folds of yarn. As for R=2.5, when FrøsÂlie evenÂtuÂalÂly gets it hoistÂed onto her lap, you’ll have to see it to believe it. ThroughÂout 2020, of course, many of our at-home hobÂbies have grown to monÂstrous proÂporÂtions — even those takÂen up by medÂical sciÂenÂtists.
via MetafilÂter
RelatÂed ConÂtent:
SimÂuÂlatÂing an EpiÂdemÂic: Using Data to Show How DisÂeases Like COVID-19 Spread
The HisÂtoÂry of the Plague: Every Major EpiÂdemÂic in an AniÂmatÂed Map
An Artist CroÂchets a Life-Size, AnatomÂiÂcalÂly-CorÂrect SkeleÂton, ComÂplete with Organs
The BeauÂtiÂful Math of Coral & CroÂchet
Based in Seoul, ColÂin MarÂshall writes and broadÂcasts on cities, lanÂguage, and culÂture. His projects include the SubÂstack newsletÂter Books on Cities, the book The StateÂless City: a Walk through 21st-CenÂtuÂry Los AngeÂles and the video series The City in CinÂeÂma. FolÂlow him on TwitÂter at @colinmarshall, on FaceÂbook, or on InstaÂgram.